标题: 新手第一文:Best time in history to construct railroads
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发表于 2008-4-29 12:37  资料  个人空间  短消息  加为好友 
新手第一文:Best time in history to construct railroads

Best time in history to construct railroads
Introduction
As I discovered recently, China is now entering the best time in history to construct railroads. Let me break down this topic into different aspects and exam them one by one. By saying massive railroad construction, I mean that at least 10,000 km of track has to be laid down annually. This amount is about half of what the American did annually in late 19th century.

Labour and engineers
China is famous for it’s massive engineering project. Historically speaking, our ancestors built many magnificent projects such as the Great Wall and the Great Canal. In modern times, we are building the world largest hydroelectric dam, the Three Gorges Dam. Among the world’s ten tallest buildings, China has six.
When referring to railroad construction, the Chinese has a great reputation. We took the most difficult and dangerous tasks in constructing the transcontinental railroads in North America. From the Central Pacific to the Northern Pacific to the Canadian Pacific, Chinese workers earned a worldwide recognition of hard working by breaking through the Rocky Mountains. In terms of domestic construction, we were able to finish the Nanjing Yangtze River Bridge without the help from the USSR. We were able to build the world highest railroad, the QingZang Railroad through the world highest plateau within 5 years.
As farmers leaving their land and moving to work in the cities, China now facing a labour surplus. We will not have a labour shortage as the Americans did during the late 19th century if we start massive construction.
So my conclusion is that China has a world class engineer groups and a massive labour force most suitable for railroad construction.

Raw material
China is considered to be the world’s factory. It produced about 489.0 million tons of steel in 2007, that’s about 36.4% of the world’s total production. We have factories (Pangang) which are able to produce 100 m long high quality steel rails. As China’s steel production rises so quickly those years, it’s is not hard to see a surplus in steel production in the future. If massive construction started, it is able to consume this surplus and keep the steel industry in good condition. China also produced about 1450 million tons of cement in 2007. This is over 44% of the world production. We have steel and cement, railroad construction is ready to go.

Demand
As China developing fast, the demand of transportation is increasing and will keep increasing at a rate relevant to the economic development.
Farmers in China leave their unproductive land in the west mountains and go east to seek jobs in the coastal cities, where they believe the wages are much higher and they can get much higher income than farming their lands. This creates a huge flow of people between west and east. Every Chinese New Year, the demand on railroad is apparent when you look at the long lines of people waiting to get a ticket. It is estimated that over 180 million people will use the railroad as their primary source of transportation during the Chinese New Year in 2008. I believe that as the economy developing in both east and west of China, the demand of rail transportation will keep increasing and at a rate relevant to the development of economy. That is about over 10% every year. As people getting wealthier, they have more money, and are more educated, so they want to travel more. As more business happening from east to west, business man have to travel. As people migrate to the east coast and settle down, they and their relatives eager to travel to resolve homesickness. As more and more Chinese student enjoy high education, more student need to travel to their universities, which are probably not located in their hometown. Thus economic development will increase the need of transportation.
China’s mineral reserves are not evenly dispersed though out the world’s fourth largest country. Most of China’s electric power comes from coal and most of the coal is located in interior or Northern China. However, the biggest load centers are located along the coast and especially in South China. As the demand of electricity increases, the demand for coal increases, too. Like what happened in early 2008, power plants had to shut down their boiler because they could not get enough coal from the railroad. Electricity demand increases about 15% every year, so does the demand for power coal. Hence, the demand for railroad transportation increases significantly.
Lot’s of China’s bulk mineral reserves such as iron ore or copper ore located far away from the coastal area. Railroads are curial to bring them out. Once upon a time, the Japanese were reluctant to transfer technology to Chinese railroad locomotive factory saying that if the Chinese was able to bring the raw material out of interior China through the bulk lines and powerful locomotives, China would grow much faster and become a threat to the Japanese.
China, unlike the US and Canada, has a huge population located far from the coastal area. They need railroads to transport the produce from the east factories as well as the import to the local market. They also have massive projects such as hydroelectricity power plants going on. They need railroad to transport the heavy machinery to the construction site. This also increases the demand for railroad.
If Chinese railroad cannot meet those demand, people either have to refer to other ways of transportation, like using trucks to transport coals, which is obviously more expensive than railroad, or they have to suppress their demand thus slow down the development and creating social problems.
Right now, Chinese railroad can only meet 30% of freight request and getting a railroad ticket is always a nightmare. So if we don’t start to expand the system right now, railroad shortage will get even worse.

Railroad financing
Railroad construction is a capital intense project. It requires huge investment. Normally it cost about 60 million RMB per kilometer on level and about 100 million per kilometer in the mountains. However, as the Chinese are becoming wealthier day and night. By the end of 2007, there is about 17.25 trillion RMB of savings in Chinese banks. This is enough to build 172,500 km of tracks in the mountains right now. They have huge amount of money sitting in the bank and waiting to invest into the industry. Rather than invest into the real estate and the gambling stock market, steady return is all they need. In 2007, the total amount of the stock exchange is 46 trillion RMB, which is 5 times that of 2006. The extra money also pushed the price of housing to a record high all over the country. There is plenty of money sitting in the back and worrying about inflation. They need to find a way to get out of banks. Foreign investment cannot be neglected. It also can be a big contributor to the Chinese railroad construction.  
In China, highway construction is even more costly than railroads, because highways are much wider than railroads. China never had a problem with highway financing and was able to finish a network second largest in the world only to the US in less than 15 years. With proper government aids and regulation, I don’t think railroad financing will be a hinder to railroad development.
The more time we wait, more money we pay. Labour cost in China is raising about 15 to 20% every year. The cost of iron ore more than tripled in less than 4 years. After a declaration of 65% raise in iron ore price by VALE, the huge iron ore company, the steel companies raised the price of steel immediately. Last but not the least, the price of coal is rising (more than 10% every year), too, which will also make cement more expensive.

National Security
People in favour of keeping railroad a nation owned entity will argue about the national security issue against privatizing. They say that in case war happens, all railroads will stop functioning and the foreign investment will be pulled out so the company will bankrupt.
I don’t see there is a direct connection between warfare and the cease of the railroad’s business. As long as the railroad can have a reasonable income during the war time, there is no excuse for them to stop their operation. In contrast, due to much more demand in war time, railroad companies normally generate more profits.
The government can always take over the railroad if necessary by announcing a state of emergency. In the US, “the Appropriation Act permitted the president to take over all transportation should it be deemed necessary.” They did so during the high demand period in the First World War, which turned out to be a disaster to the railroad industry afterwards. The same thing could happen in China during war time, too. But remain competition between railroad in peace days is crucial to lower down the price and improve the service.
However, a vulnerable railroad system will not be able to meet the sky rising demand during warfare. The Railroad system in China is not even able to meet the demand during normal peak periods. How can it be able to handle huge transportation demand during the war time? For example, the Daqing Railroad transports about 300 million tons of coal to the coast during 2007. It contributes to about 1/5 of the countries’ electricity production. And it is the only railroad having that capacity in China. Railroads like that will be the most important target to enemies. Imaging once it is destroyed, steel mills and power plants in east coast have to be shut down. Then China will not able to continue the war simply because they cannot manufacture enough weapons, even keeping tens of millions of people lighted at night will be difficult. So our conclusion is privatization railroad will not have bad effect to the national security.

Conclusion
Our conclusion is obvious: this is the best time to start massive railroad construction. Let railroads power the economy of China as they did for the US in the beginning of the 20th century and for Japan after the Second World War. We already fall behind; there is not much time to hesitate on this issue.

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笛初鸣 ­------ 火车迷 2008 系列活动开始
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新手上路

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此人知道何为 鸟语.-------鉴定完毕.

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第一次proofread

Best time in history to construct railroads
Introduction
As I discovered recently, China is now entering the best time in history to construct railroads. Let me break down this topic into different aspects and exam them one by one. By saying massive railroad construction, I mean that at least 10,000 km of track has to be laid down annually. This amount is about half of what the American did annually in late 19th century.

Labour and engineers
China is famous for its massive engineering projects. Historically speaking, our ancestors built many magnificent projects such as the Great Wall and the Great Canal. In modern times, we are building the world's largest hydroelectric dam, the Three Gorges Dam. Among the world's ten tallest buildings, China has six.
When referring to railroad construction, the Chinese has a great reputation. We took the most difficult and dangerous tasks in constructing the transcontinental railroads in North America. From the Central Pacific to the Northern Pacific to the Canadian Pacific, Chinese workers earned a worldwide recognition of hard working by breaking through the Rocky Mountains. In terms of domestic construction, we were able to finish the Nanjing Yangtze River Bridge without the help from the USSR. We were able to build the world highest railroad, the QingZang Railroad through the world highest plateau within 5 years.
As farmers leaving their land and moving to work in the cities, China is now facing a labour surplus. We will not have a labour shortage as the Americans did during the late 19th century if we start massive constructions.
So my conclusion is that China has a world class engineer groups and a massive labour force most suitable for railroad constructions.

Raw material
China is considered to be the world's factory. It produced about 489.0 million tons of steel in 2007, that's about 36.4% of the world's total production. We have factories (Pangang) which are able to produce 100 m long high quality steel rails. As China's steel production rises so quickly those years, it's not hard to see a surplus in steel production in the future. If massive construction started, it is able to consume this surplus and keep the steel industry in good condition. China also produced about 1450 million tons of cement in 2007. This is over 44% of the world production. We have steel and cement, railroad construction is ready to go.

Demand
As China developing fast, the demand of transportation is increasing and will keep increasing at a rate relevant to the economic development.
Farmers in China leave their unproductive land in the west mountains and go east to seek jobs in the coastal cities, where they believe the wages are much higher and they can get much higher income than farming their lands. This creates a huge flow of people between west and east. Every Chinese New Year, the demand on railroad is apparent when you look at the long lines of people waiting to get a ticket. It is estimated that over 180 million people would use the railroad as their primary source of transportation during the Chinese New Year in 2008. I believe that as the economy developing in both east and west of China, the demand of rail transportation will keep increasing and at a rate relevant to the development of economy. That is about over 10% every year. As people getting wealthier, they have more money, and are more educated, so they want to travel more. As more business happening from east to west, businessmen have to travel. As people migrate to the east coast and settle down, they and their relatives eager to travel to resolve homesickness. As more and more Chinese student enjoy high education, more student need to travel to their universities, which are probably not located in their hometown. Thus economic development will increase the need of transportation.
China's mineral reserves are not evenly dispersed though out the world's fourth largest country. Most of China's electric power comes from coal and most of the coal is located in interior or Northern China. However, the biggest load centers are located along the coast and especially in South China. As the demand of electricity increases, the demand for coal increases, too. Like what happened in early 2008, power plants had to shut down their boiler because they could not get enough coal from the railroad. Electricity demand increases about 15% every year, so does the demand for power coal. Hence, the demand for railroad transportation increases significantly.
Lots of China’s bulk mineral reserves such as iron ore or copper ore located far away from the coastal area. Railroads are curial to bring them out. Once upon a time, the Japanese were reluctant to transfer technology to Chinese railroad locomotive factories saying that if the Chinese was able to bring the raw material out of interior China through the bulk lines and powerful locomotives, China would grow much faster and become a threat to the Japanese.
China, unlike the US and Canada, has a huge population located far from the coastal area. They need railroads to transport the products from the eastern factories as well as the import to the local market. They also have massive projects such as hydroelectricity power plants going on. They need railroad to transport heavy machinery to the construction site. This also increases the demand for railroad.
If Chinese railroad cannot meet those demand, people either have to refer to other ways of transportation, like using trucks to transport coals, which is obviously more expensive than railroad, or they have to suppress their demand thus slow down the development and creating social problems.
Right now, Chinese railroad can only meet 30% of freight request and getting a railroad ticket is always a nightmare. So if we don’t start to expand the system right now, railroad shortage will get even worse.

Railroad financing
Railroad construction is a capital intense project. It requires huge investment. Normally it cost about 60 million RMB per kilometer on level and about 100 million per kilometer in the mountains. However, as the Chinese are becoming wealthier day and night. By the end of 2007, there is about 17.25 trillion RMB of savings in Chinese banks. This is enough to build 172,500 km of tracks in the mountains right now. They have huge amount of money sitting in the bank and waiting to invest into the industry. Rather than invest into the real estate and the gambling stock market, steady return is all they need. In 2007, the total amount of the stock exchange is 46 trillion RMB, which is 5 times that of 2006. The extra money also pushed the price of housing to a record high all over the country. There is plenty of money sitting in the back and worrying about inflation. They need to find a way to get out of banks. Foreign investment cannot be neglected. It also can be a big contributor to the Chinese railroad construction.  
In China, highway construction is even more costly than railroads, because highways are much wider than railroads. China never had a problem with highway financing and was able to finish a network second largest in the world only to the US in less than 15 years. With proper government aids and regulation, I don’t think railroad financing will be a hinder to railroad development.
The more time we wait, more money we pay. Labour cost in China is raising about 15 to 20% every year. The cost of iron ore more than tripled in less than 4 years. After a declaration of 65% raise in iron ore price by VALE, the huge iron ore company, the steel companies raised the price of steel immediately. Last but not the least, the price of coal is rising (more than 10% every year), too, which will also make cement more expensive.

National Security
People in favour of keeping railroad a nation owned entity will argue about the national security issue against privatizing. They say that in case war happens, all railroads will stop functioning and the foreign investment will be pulled out so the company will bankrupt.
I don’t see there is a direct connection between warfare and the cease of the railroad’s business. As long as the railroad can have a reasonable income during the war time, there is no excuse for them to stop their operation. In contrast, due to much more demand in war time, railroad companies normally generate more profits.
The government can always take over the railroad if necessary by announcing a state of emergency. In the US, “the Appropriation Act permitted the president to take over all transportation should it be deemed necessary.” They did so during the high demand period in the First World War, which turned out to be a disaster to the railroad industry afterwards. The same thing could happen in China during war time, too. But remain competition between railroad in peace days is crucial to lower down the price and improve the service.
However, a vulnerable railroad system will not be able to meet the sky rising demand during warfare. The Railroad system in China is not even able to meet the demand during normal peak periods. How can it be able to handle huge transportation demand during the war time? For example, the Daqin Railroad transports about 300 million tons of coal to the coast during 2007. It contributes to about 1/5 of the countries' electricity production. And it is the only railroad having that capacity in China. Railroads like that will be the most important target to enemies. Imaging once it is destroyed, steel mills and power plants in east coast have to be shut down. Then China will not able to continue the war simply because they cannot manufacture enough weapons, even keeping tens of millions of people lighted at night will be difficult. So our conclusion is privatization railroad will not have bad effect to the national security.

Conclusion
Our conclusion is obvious: this is the best time to start massive railroad construction. Let railroads power the economy of China as they did for the US in the beginning of the 20th century and for Japan after the Second World War. We already fall behind; there is not much time to hesitate on this issue.

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QUOTE:
原帖由 <i>m21</i> 于 2008-11-28 20:58 发表 <a href="http://bbs.hasea.com/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=4217021&ptid=256566" target="_blank"><img src="http://bbs.hasea.com/images/common/back.gif" border="0" onload="if(this.width>screen.width*0.7) {this.resized=true; this.width=screen.width*0.7; this.alt='Click here to open new window\nCTRL+Mouse wheel to zoom in/out';}" onmouseover="if(this.width>screen.width*0.7) {this.resized=true; this.width=screen.width*0.7; this.style.cursor='hand'; this.alt='Click here to open new window\nCTRL+Mouse wheel to zoom in/out';}" onclick="if(!this.resized) {return true;} else {window.open(this.src);}" onmousewheel="return imgzoom(this);" alt="" /></a><br />
第一次proofread<br />
<br />
Best time in history to construct railroads<br />
Introduction<br />
As I discovered recently, China is now entering the best time in history to construct railroads. Let me break down th ...

<br />
以下内容由GOOGLE自动翻译:

最佳时间在历史上修建铁路
导言
正如我最近发现,中国现在已进入最好的历史时刻建造铁路。我要打破这个主题分为不同的方面和考试,他们一个接一个。说大规模铁路建设,我的意思是,至少有一点〇 〇 〇万公里的轨道,必须每年放下。这一数额的一半左右,美国是没有每年在19世纪后期。

劳动和工程师
中国是著名的大型工程项目。从历史上讲,我们的祖先建造的许多宏伟的项目,如长城,大运河。近代以来,我们正在建设世界上最大的水电站,三峡大坝。在全球十大最高建筑,中国有六个。
在谈到铁路建设,在中国有很高的声誉。我们在最困难和最危险的任务,建设跨铁路在北美地区。从太平洋中部的北太平洋的加拿大太平洋,中国工人赢得了举世公认的辛勤工作,打破通过下洛基山脉。在国内建设,我们能够完成了南京长江大桥的帮助下从苏联。我们有能力建设世界最高的铁路,青藏铁路通过世界最高的高原在5年内。
随着农民离开自己的土地和移动的工作在城市,中国正面临一个劳动力过剩。我们将不会有一个劳动力短缺的美国人在19世纪后期,如果我们开始大规模建设。
所以我的结论是,中国拥有世界一流的工程师群体和大量的劳动力最适合于铁路建设。

原料
中国被认为是世界工厂。它生产的约489.0万吨钢铁在2007年,这大约36.4 %的世界生产总量。我们工厂(攀钢) ,其中能够生产100米长的高质量的钢轨。随着中国钢铁产量迅速上升,使这些年来,这是不难看出的顺差在钢铁生产中的未来。如果开始大规模建设,它能够消耗这笔盈余,使钢铁工业处于良好状态。中国还生产了大约一十四万五千点〇 〇万吨水泥在2007年。这是超过44 %的世界生产。我们有钢铁,水泥,铁路建设准备就绪。

需求
作为中国快速发展的需求的运输正在增加,并会继续增加,利率相关的经济发展。
中国农民离开自己的非生产性的土地在西部山区和东部去寻找工作中的沿海城市,在那里他们认为,工资要高得多,他们可以得到高得多的收入比农民自己的土地。这将创建一个巨大的人流之间的西部和东部。每一个中国新的一年里,铁路的需求很明显当你看看大排长龙等候的人获得入场券。据估计,超过180万人将利用铁路作为其主要来源,交通运输在中国新年在2008年。我相信,随着经济的发展既东部和西部的中国,需求的铁路运输将继续增加和利率相关的经济发展。这是约10 %以上,每年。随着人们越来越富裕,他们有更多的钱,而且更多的教育,所以他们想更多的旅行。随着越来越多的企业发生从东到西,商人旅行。随着人们迁移到东海岸,并定居下来,他们和他们的亲属急于旅行,以解决乡愁。随着越来越多的中国学生享有很高的教育,更多的学生需要前往他们的大学,这是可能不是设在他们的家乡。因此,经济发展将增加的运输需要。
中国的矿产储量是并不均匀分散了虽然是世界第四大国。大多数中国的电力来自煤炭和大部分煤炭设在室内或北中国。然而,最大的负荷中心设在沿海,尤其是在南中国。随着电力需求的增加,煤炭需求增加了。什么样的事情发生在2008年年初,电厂不得不关闭其锅炉,因为他们不能得到足够的煤炭铁路。电力需求增加15 %左右,每年因此没有电力需求煤炭。因此,要求铁路运输大幅度增加。
很多中国的大宗矿产储量,如铁矿石和铜矿位于远离海岸地区。铁路是curial ,使它们了。曾几何时,日本人都不愿转让技术,中国铁路机车工厂说,如果中国能够把原材料的内部通过中国的大部分线路和强大的火车头,中国将增长得更快,并成为威胁日本。
中国不同,美国和加拿大,并且拥有庞大的人口远离沿海地区。他们需要铁路运输的产品从东部工厂以及进口当地市场。他们也有大规模的项目,如水电发电厂事情。他们需要的铁路运输重型机械的施工现场。这也增加了铁路的需求。
中国铁路如果不能满足这些需求,人们既提及其他方式运输,如用卡车运送煤,这显然是昂贵得多铁路,或他们必须压制他们的需求从而减慢发展和创造的社会问题。
现在,中国铁路只能满足30 %的货运要求,并获得铁路票价始终是一场噩梦。因此,如果我们不启动扩大系统,目前铁路短缺将得到更加恶化。

铁路融资
铁路建设是一个资本密集的项目。这需要巨大的投资。通常它的成本约60万元人民币每公里的水平和大约100万公里的山区。然而,随着中国越来越富裕昼夜。到2007年底,有大约172500亿人民币储蓄银行在中国。这是足以建立十七点二五〇万公里轨道在山里了。他们有巨额资金,坐在银行,等待投资的行业。而不是投资到房地产和股市赌博,稳定的回报,他们的需要。在2007年,总金额证券交易所是46万亿元,这是5倍的2006年。额外的钱也推动房价的纪录高在全国各地。有大量的钱坐在后面,并担心通货膨胀。他们需要找到一种方法,走出银行。外商投资不可忽视。它也可能是一个很大的贡献,中国铁路建设。
在中国,公路建设更是昂贵的铁路,公路,因为更超过铁路。中国从未有过任何问题,公路融资,并能够完成一个网络第二大在世界上只有美国在不到15年。有了适当的教具和政府规章,我不认为铁路融资将是一个阻碍,以铁路的发展。
时间越长,我们等待,我们更多的钱支付。劳动力成本在中国是提高约15至20 % ,每年。费用铁矿石三倍以上,在不到4年。经过申报提高65 %的铁矿石价格由谷,庞大的铁矿石公司,钢铁公司提出的价格立即钢。最后但并非最不重要的是,煤炭价格上升( 10 %以上,每年) ,太多,这也将使水泥更加昂贵。

国家安全
人民赞成维持一个国家的铁路国有实体将争论国家安全问题对私有化。他们说,在发生战争的情况下,所有铁路将停止运作和外国投资将退出,使该公司将破产。
我没有看到有直接的联系和战争停止的铁路业务。只要铁路能有一个合理的收入在战争期间的时间,没有任何借口,他们停止他们的行动。与此相反,由于更多的需求在战争时间,通常铁路公司创造更多的利润。
政府可以随时接管铁路如果有必要宣布国家进入紧急状态。在美国, “拨款法案允许总统接管所有的运输应该是必要的。 ”他们这样做的高需求期在第一次世界大战期间,它演变成一场灾难,事后铁路行业。同样的事情可能发生在战争期间中国的时间了。但是之间的竞争仍然是铁路在天和平的关键是降低价格和改善服务。
但是,一个脆弱的铁路系统将无法满足日益增长的需求天空中的战争。铁路系统在中国甚至不能够满足正常需求的高峰期。怎么能够处理庞大的运输需求在战争期间的时间?例如,大秦铁路运输约300万吨煤炭的海岸在2007年。它有助于约1 / 5的国家的电力生产。它是唯一的铁路有能力在中国。铁路一样,将是最重要的目标敌人。影像一旦被摧毁,钢铁厂和发电厂的东海岸都必须关闭。然后,中国将无法继续进行战争,只是因为它们不能制造足够的武器,甚至使数以千万计的人在夜间灯光将是困难的。因此,我们的结论是铁路私有化不会有不良影响的国家安全。

结论
我们的结论是显而易见的:这是最好的时间才能启动大规模铁路建设。让铁路电力经济的中国一样,美国在20世纪初,日本在第二次世界大战后。我们已经落在后面; ,没有太多的时间犹豫这个问题。

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QUOTE:
原帖由 calvingao 于 2008-4-29 12:39 发表
请大车们多多关照。

等我有空再翻译你的文章





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DF11香港青年=和DF11一樣充滿活力,心在香港的青年'Anna'
有空就去游泳,有空就去跑步,有空就去撃劍,有空就去和DF11賽跑,有空就去坐坐25T
新手上路,请多指教!
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发表于 2008-11-28 21:34  资料  个人空间  短消息  加为好友 


QUOTE:
原帖由 calvingao 于 2008-4-29 12:39 发表
请大车们多多关照。

这里很少有大车来————没有大车!





我很.......是一名铁路客运三线职工。
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发表于 2008-11-29 12:15  资料  个人空间  短消息  加为好友 
是中国爷们就好好说中国话.别老像个奴才一样!





我很荣幸我是一名铁路客运一线职工。
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1034

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发表于 2008-11-30 10:08  资料  个人空间  短消息  加为好友  QQ
是的了。写一大堆鸟语不知道给谁看。明明知道铁路职工没几个会英语的!!

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发表于 2008-11-30 10:27  资料  个人空间  短消息  加为好友 
估计就是想臭显摆!





我很荣幸我是一名铁路客运一线职工。
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